You may be familiar with the advisory system (pictured at right) formerly used by the Department of Homeland Security to disseminate information regarding the risk of terrorist acts. Despite its being replaced by a new system in 2011, most of us remember the color-coded warning system that came in the wake of September 11.
But, in the midst of a financial crisis (or when planning for a downturn), businesses need to be aware of their surroundings as well. To help companies analyze their environment to determine when action is necessary, we translated the Department of Homeland Security advisory system into the Strategic CFO Business Advisory System.
Under the Best Case scenario, you’ve probably projected the crisis to resolve in less than 6 months. In this case, simple frugality might be enough to weather the storm. Generally, no systemic changes are needed to get through the trouble.
As Mr. Murphy would have it, generally Best Case scenario isn’t probable. More likely than not, it will take 6-12 months for the crisis to resolve. The bad news, you’re going to have to make some changes in your processes other than keeping a lid on costs to ride things out. The good news, this is the most likely situation that you will find yourself in and you can manage it. At least it’s not the Worst Case scenario…
Under the Worst Case scenario, you probably don’t expect the crisis to resolve within the next year. In fact, you may have no idea how long it will take for things to return to normal. In this case, you’re going to have to make some tough decisions to survive.
What can you do?
You need to create a plan for each of the cases above. What will each case look like with regards to your financials – revenue projections, cash flow projections, etc. How much overhead can you carry in these stages?
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