Last week I attended the Regional Turnaround Management Conference in San Antonio. Several interesting trends and comments were made. The most enlightening were from an economist, Don Reynolds, out of Fort Worth. If you ever get a chance to hear him, do so! He is very entertaining and filled with common sense. Some of his predictions were as follows:
– The recession (yes, we are in a recession) will last longer than people think. Most probably 12 – 15 months vs the 6 months that is being tossed around.
– Housing has yet to see the 2nd shoe fall
– same for the credit card markets. Their next!
– There is a major de-leveraging of risk going on in the global markets which will take 5 years to work out of the systems. Presently, we are 2 1/2 years into the cycle.
-Underwriting standards at banks are going up. (Even in Houston, Texas!)
– Finally, there is a commodity bubble that will have to be dealt with.
You would think that in the middle of oil country everyone would be optimistic. However, the mood would best be described as nervous. We all know that the world is a global market. If everyone has a cold chances are you will too.
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